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Modelling Insanity

The UK Government’s “independent” Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies AKA SAGE have proved their “independent” status, but only in that they are clearly operating independently from reality and basic maths. They are still bought and paid for State mouthpieces that are almost all taking money from the Big Players in the fake “Pandemic” and other connected groups as can be seen here in this SAGE COVID-19 Register of Participants’ Interests.

Here are a few highlights from that Register, just to give you an idea of the kinds of people we have at SAGE working tirelessly to save humanity. Let’s start with the vaccination hero, the man who just happened to be on shift to give Matt Hancock his “vaccine”, Professor Jonathan Van Tam MBE. His stated interests are:

• Deputy Chief Medical Officer
• Former UK Medical Director, Sanofi-Pasteur MSD Ltd. (2002-2004)
• Former UK Head of Medical Affairs, Roche Products Ltd. (2001-2002)
• Former Associate Director, SmithKline Beecham Plc. (2000-2001)
• F. Hoffman-La Roche – Research grant on influenza (awarded 2010)
• Chatham House and European Scientific Working Group on Influenza – Invited speaker (January (2019)
• Individual consultancy/advisory engagements related to influenza – GSK, Baxter, and Roche (2007 – 2010)
• ACM Biolabs Pte, Prep Biopharm, BUPA, Shionogi – Individual consultancy/advisory engagements related to influenza (2016 – 2017)

Page 1 – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/971151/Covid-19_SAGE_register_of_participants__interests.pdf

Good old JVT will be super-glad COVID-19 came along as he’s clearly done such a marvellous job with influenza there has been almost no cases, and if this existential threat to humanity hadn’t coincidentally shown up he would have become pretty much redundant.

Another one to note is Professor Carole Mundell, who lists the following:

• Chief Scientific Advisor, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
• Professor of Extragalactic Astronomy, University of Bath
• Co-director, Lumnl Ltd.

Page 2 – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/971151/Covid-19_SAGE_register_of_participants__interests.pdf

We can start to see the truly “independent” nature of this committee with Carole being the CSA to the Government’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office. It says she has declared her co-directorship of a UK company called “Lumnl Ltd.” but there is no such company. There is a “dormant” company called “Luminl Limited” with a Carole Gibson Mundell listed as a director. It is reassuring to see that documents relating to a committee with such a colossal responsibility, that of saving us all, contain such accurate information.

There are many more interesting things listed, the usual suspects like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London and the World Health Organisation (WHO) crop up regularly, but we’ll finish this section with Professor Lockdown himself, none other than Neil Ferguson OBE FMedSci who listed this lot:

• Principal Investigator, Medical Research Council (MRC) grant – MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
• Principal Investigator, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) grant – Health protection research unit for modelling and health economics
• Principal Investigator, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance grant – Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium
• Principal Investigator, Community Jameel grant – Abdul-Latif Jameel Institute of Disease and Emergency Analytics
• Co-investigator, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) grant – UK COVID-19 modelling
• Co-investigator, NIHR grant – Modelling of vaccines for emerging infectious disease threats
• Director, World Health Organisation (WHO), Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
• Advisor, WHO – Multiple disease topics including COVID-19
• Consultant, World Bank – Pandemic threats (Before 2020)
• Member, New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (NERVTAG)
• Member, Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP)
• Member, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M)
• Advisor, US Government agencies, departments and states – Pandemic modelling, planning and response
• Recipient of cloud computing time from Microsoft and Amazon for Imperial College MRC Centre COVID-19 modelling

Page 17 – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/971151/Covid-19_SAGE_register_of_participants__interests.pdf

You’d think someone who’s entire career has been one catastrophically wrong prediction after another would be virtually unemployable. In any normal industry if you’re bad at your job, so bad in fact that your mistakes cost people millions and billions of pounds you’d expect to have to reconsider your vocation and think perhaps it’s just not for you, as you’d probably find it harder and harder to find an employer willing to take you on because you’re a liability. Not so with the Government, and in particular Public Health computer modelling. Being massively wrong every time in this field is a positive boon, although it should be noted that your “mistakes” need to be in the overestimation direction. Underestimate something just once and you’re handed your P45 quicker than you can say “fearmonger”.

So we can see the so-called “independent” SAGE committee are anything but, shacked up with the Government, their academia positions all intertwined with funding, grants and paid opportunities from COVID’s big winners. And this is the group that is providing the Government with their Science to push this entire thing. From lockdowns, experimental gene-therapy and unlicensed “vaccines”, to health passports, digital everything and the decimation of small businesses this is all coming from SAGE. Not that Parliament is an unwilling participant in this save a few token gestures. This is clearly an agreement where the Government has an agenda, and they ensure the SAGE members get funding for their pet projects and are hailed as heroes in return for providing the correct “Science”.

We’re coming up to the 3rd step in the “roadmap”, where tomorrow (Monday 17th May) we are supposed to be allowed to do some more things. On or around the date of each step we have had the increasing scaremongering and propaganda in the media, often quoting members of SAGE who are “worried” and “concerned” about what the opening up is going to lead to. After the first step on the 8th March went ahead the intrepid Chris Whitty was obligingly candid with declarations of the “next COVID surge” causing a “significant number of deaths”, regularly referring to “models” to back his claims.

On March 29th the 2nd step along the roadmap was reached, and in the week before that we had Boris Johnson reported diligently by the BBC talking with an almost poetic use of metaphors about how the “third wave will wash up on our shores”. I wonder which person in the Behavioural Insights Team dreamt that one up? There was also a report the day before from the “impartial” BBC about how social distancing and mask wearing “could last years”. This article quotes a number of Government mouthpieces including Vallance, Whitty and Mary Ramsay, the head of immunisation at Public Health England. The public was being prepared for the future the Government wants.

The 3rd step is tomorrow, May 17th and right on cue we’ve had the “Indian Variant” show up to scare everyone. On May 12th the Guardian went with the headline “Indian Covid variant calls in question 17 May reopening in UK, say experts”, because of course they do. In this article they talk about the entirely unsurprising “dramatic rise in UK cases” of this variant which could “undermine the country’s roadmap for reopening, scientists are cautioning”. How prevalent is this new variant given it’s “dramatic rise”? Well they explain…

According to the Covid-19 genomics UK consortium database – which may include duplicates and does not record whether sequences of the variants are linked to travel – for sequences up to 7 May, there have so far been 1,393 instances of B.1.617.2, making it the second most common variant in the UK.

1,393 cases, and that could include duplicates because why on earth would we want to clean up data of such importance before screeching about it from the rooftops? According to Worldometer there are over 68,000,000 people in the UK. That is 0.002%, or two thousandths of a percent of the population. The only dramatic thing about this is the reporting. It get’s more dramatic though. Martin McKee, a “worried” professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is quoted at the end of the article as saying:

“I will personally continue to avoid indoor meetings, such as restaurants, even though I am fully vaccinated.”

The public is told to have the vaccine, told it’s totally safe and told it’s definitely effective and then when over 35,000,000 people have had it, Public Health officials are quoted as claiming to be so worried they’re still not going to meet people indoors, even after having the “vaccine”, which if you believe this vaccine actually works is completely ridiculous.

Today (May 16th) on the Sky News website the emotional Matt Hancock is reported to have said this new Indian Variant can “spread like wildfire”. Of course he pointed out, it can only “spread like wildfire among those not vaccinated”. This rampant spreading was quantified in the article in case you thought there might not be any statistical evidence presented to back up this hysterical claim. Here it is:

Mr Hancock said it can “spread even faster” than the Kent variant, which drove the UK’s deadly second wave of infections this winter, with a total of just over 1,300 cases found in the country so far.


This wildfire-like spreading has gone from 1,393 (possibly including duplicates) to “just over 1,300” in a little over a week, assuming they can manage to report the dates accurately.

The public appears to not be suffering from the required levels of “personal threat” and not enough are locking themselves away despite not being required to by the State. So SAGE have helpfully provided some material to assist. In the latest document from their modelling sub-group SPI-M-O dated 12th May 2021 they’ve just gone full Diane Abbott with the maths.

It starts off well with the early statement “Overall, the epidemic in England could be either flat, shrinking slowly, or growing slightly.” which sounds highly Scientific and completely worth stating. From there it does go downhill though. On page 7 there is a set of graphs…

These graphs are all about projecting hospital admissions for new variants with differing transmissibility rates. They also assume “complete protection” from previous infection and vaccination, and based on the final steps of roadmap continuing as planned. The thick teal coloured line is the projection of hospital admissions if the Indian variant is more transmissible, something that is being claimed. They provide 3 options but as a SAGE member stated on Friday in the news briefing it is 50% more transmissible it’s the only one they care about. If it seems like a very arbitrary and convenient figure, you’re right it is. If you’re wondering about how they can state that specific and conveniently round number so definitely without any apparent evidence, so is anyone else who can actually think.

Let’s look at the maths behind the claims that hospital admissions will peak at 10,000-20,000 per day by the middle of July based on the bottom graph and the 50% higher transmissibility of this variant. The model is predicting hospital admissions three times higher than the January peak. They are predicting this at the same time as assuming the vaccine and previous infections provide total protection. To reach the 10,000 per day figure this means that between three tenths (30%) and three fifths (60%) of the population would all need to be infected in the same week in July. Given that in this document the prevalence is stated as “40,800 people had COVID-19 in the community in England”, which is 0.073%, which is down from the stated “148,100 people had COVID-19 in the community in England” in their document from the 31st March 2021 which is 0.264%, a surge to between 30-60% seems a tad unlikely.

The “upper confidence interval” which is the area shaded in blue on the graph that projects 20,000 hospital admissions per day would require between six tenths (60%) and six fifths (120%) of the population to be infected all in the same week in July. Apparently nobody on the SAGE committee, none of the Extragalactic Astronomers, Computer Modellers, Public Health Experts and Professors noticed that this graph was produced by a model that demanded 120% of the population to be infected simultaneously.

This kind of lunacy can only be explained by an absolute devotion to a political ideology that is totally uninterested in objective reality, facts and it would seem, basic maths. These are supposedly the smartest people in the country, making decisions that are destroying lives and changing the way we live based on sheer nonsense. People need to step up and reject all of this because it is clear these tyrants and ideologues have no intention of stopping the forging ahead with the New World they want to bring in.